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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a Neutral state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely move towards weak La Nina state during spring. The likelihood of a La Nina phase during the coming summer months has drastically improved in the last few months, and it will be closely monitored as we move closer to the summer forecasts.
The multi-model rainfall forecast for early-spring (Aug-Sep-Oct) indicate increased chances of above-normal rainfall over the South-Western and Southern parts of the country with drier than normal conditions throughout the rest of South Africa. During spring (Sep-Oct-Nov) forecasts indicate increased chances of above-normal rainfall over the eastern parts of South Africa as well as the south-western parts. In general, most of the country is expected to experience above-normal temperatures during early-spring and spring.
The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.
Read more: SAWS Seasonal climate watch August to December 2020
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