According to the South African Weather Service’s Seasonal Climate Watch Report (August -December 2021), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain in a neutral state for spring, with a likely change to a weak La Niña during early-summer. As we move towards the spring and summer season, ENSO starts playing an important role in our summer rainfall. As such, the increased likelihood of a weak La Niña during early summer is expected to be favourable for above-normal rainfall in that period.
The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly above-normal rainfall for the north-eastern half of the country throughout the spring to early summer seasons (ASO, SON and OND), whereas the south-western half, which falls outside the parts which receive summer rainfall, is mostly expected to receive below-normal rainfall Above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected across the country.
Above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the summer rainfall regions during the spring season, which is likely to bring positive impacts for crop and livestock production. Decision makers may advise farmers practice soil and water conservation and establish good drainage systems.
