The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the remainder of 2022, with an ENSO neutral state most likely early 2023. The presence of a La Niña event usually has its strongest impact on rainfall during the mid-summer months. Therefore, its evaluation into the start of the summer months is important to take note off.
The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for the western parts of the country during spring (Sep-Oct-Nov), with above-normal rainfall expected over most of the remainder of the country. Rainfall conditions are predicted to improve further during the early-summer (Oct-Nov-Dec) into the start of the mid-summer months (Nov-Dec-Jan). Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal for most of the country.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.
Seasonal Climate Watch – September to January 2022 by Nel on Scribd
