The veld and livestock are in reasonable to poor condition in most areas. Land preparations are underway for summer crops. Above normal rainfall is anticipated during early summer in most summer rainfall areas. However, towards mid-summer rainfall is expected to be below normal in the central and western parts of the country. Above normal rainfall is anticipated for the north eastern parts of the country during mid-summer. Temperatures are expected to be above normal countrywide. However, the seasonal forecast emphasizes caution as the El Niño effect might still influence the weather patterns thereby change the seasonal outlook for the mid and late summer. Farmers are encouraged to continually monitor these conditions through the extended weather forecast for short-term to medium-term planning.

In June, the south and south-western areas of the country received above-normal rainfall while most of the central and northern regions received below-normal rainfall (Figure 1). July received a mixture of normal to below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country (Figure 2). However, some eastern parts of the country as well as southern Free State and parts of the Eastern Cape received above normal rainfall. Mid-August was dry as below-normal rainfall was recorded countrywide (Figure 3). For the season July 2022 – June 2023, near normal rainfall was received over much of the country with above normal rainfall only over the southern parts of Free State, eastern parts of Eastern Cape as well as parts of Western Cape, KwaZulu Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo Provinces (Figure 4). ZF Mgcawu District Municipality of the Northern Cape received below-normal rainfall.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in an El Niño state and according to the latest predictions is expected to persist through most of the summer months. ENSO’s typical impact on Southern Africa is in favour for generally drier and warmer conditions during the summer seasons from October to March. Current global forecasts indicate a great deal of uncertainty for the typical drier conditions that South Africa experiences during an El Niño.

The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during early spring (Aug-Sep-Oct) with below-normal rainfall predicted over the western parts during mid-spring (Sep-Oct-Nov) and late-spring (Oct-Nov-Dec).

Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a Neutral state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely move into a weak El Niño state during late winter and early spring and eventually strengthen into a strong El Niño state for the remainder of the summer season. Caution is advised though, ENSO predictions during this time are less skilful than at other times of the year. It is advised that the ENSO forecasts be monitored from now until we reach August/September when ENSO forecasts have significantly higher skill levels. ENSO’s impact is limited for the current forecast period until the summer season starts which will likely be impacted by a strong El Niño state if early predictions are correct. The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during winter (Jun-Jul-Aug) through to early spring (Aug-Sep-Oct). This is still only relevant for the southwestern parts of the country during winter but also relevant for the eastern coastal areas during spring. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely return to a neutral state by autumn (Mar-Apr-May). However, ENSO’s impact is limited for the coming seasons until the next summer season which may be impacted by an El Nino state if early predictions are correct. Caution is advised however as changes in the ENSO prediction may change during winter and only monitoring is advised at this stage.

Monthly report on livestock disease trends as informally reported by veterinarians belonging to the Ruminant Veterinary Association of South Africa (RuVASA), a group of the South African Veterinary Association.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the remainder of 2022, with an ENSO neutral state most likely early 2023. The presence of a La Niña event usually has its strongest impact on rainfall during the mid-summer months. Therefore, its evaluation into the start of the summer months is important to take note off.

Brent crude dropped by 3.37% on Tuesday to trade at $101.55 after it had climbed 4.1% on Monday. The oil prices dropped as traders looked forward to approaching rate hikes from central banks. Markets are expecting more aggressive rate hikes from central banks seeing that inflation in the US and Europe remains high. This could lead to a drop in oil prices.

The ban on South African wool exports has finally been lifted as the government has secured an agreement with the Chinese government. With 70%- 80% of South Africa’s wool exported to China yearly, the impact of the ban could have been devastating had it continued, putting at risk more than 35 000 jobs and an additional 4 500 seasonal jobs. The SA wool industry estimated it had so far lost an estimated R734 million in wool exports to China.

The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for the south-western parts of the country during early- and mid-spring (Aug-Sep-Oct and Sep-Oct-Nov), with above-normal rainfall expected elsewhere. Late spring is expected to have above-normal rainfall countrywide, with significant rainfall expected over the northeastern parts of the country as we move to the summer months. Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of the country.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the coming seasons. During winter, the presence of ENSO has less of an impact. Thus, the presence of the current La Niña event is not expected to have any significant impact on rainfall in the coming seasons.

The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for the south-western half of the country and notably above-normal rainfall over parts of Kwa-Zulu-Natal throughout the winter season. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of the country.

Healthy and productive land resources – soil, water, and biodiversity – are the foundation of societies and economies. Roughly USD 44 trillion of economic output (more than half of global GDP) is moderately or highly reliant on natural capital. However, in recent decades, land resources have been subject to persistent degradation and loss due to global patterns of human domination. Most countries and communities now recognize the urgent need to transform land governance and restore natural capital to create meaningful jobs, reduce emissions, and restore harmony with nature.3 Whether in managed or natural ecosystems, these activities can only be sustained by targeted government policies and budget outlays, considerable shifts in consumer demand and corporate investment, and more inclusive and responsible governance – all of which must come together to support regenerative land and water management practices on the ground.

During November, near-normal to below-normal rainfall was received over most parts of the country with above-normal rainfall received over the Western Cape and Gauteng as well as some areas in the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, North West and Free State (Figure 1). During December, rainfall increased resulting in above-normal rainfall over the country (Figure 2). The rainfall continued to be above-normal mainly over the Northern Cape, parts of the Free State, North West and some eastern parts of the country in January 2022. The remainder of the country received near-normal to below-normal rainfall (Figure 3). The season July 2021 to January 2022 received above-normal rainfall over most of the central and western parts of the country but normal elsewhere (Figure 4).

Since the last report in November heavy downpour with flooding occurred in many areas of South Africa. Water sources (water pans, dams, vleis) are filled to the brim and midges and mosquitoes, the transmitters of viral diseases such as Blue Tongue, Rift Valley Fever, Wesselsbron Disease, African Horse Sickness, Ephemeral Fever and Lumpy Skin Disease, West Nile Fever, Akabane) have been reported.

September tractor sales of 724 units were almost 30% more than the 561 units sold in September last year. Year-to-date tractor sales are now also almost 30% up on last year. Twenty-one combines harvesters were sold in September, ten units more than the eleven units sold in September last year. On a year-to-date basis, combine harvester sales are now almost 30% up on last year.

August tractor sales of 724 units were almost 56% more than the 465 units sold in August last year. Year-to-date tractor sales are now almost 30% up on last year. Fourteen combine harvesters were sold in August, one unit more than the thirteen units sold in August last year. On a year-to-date basis combine harvester sales are now almost 25% up on last year.

The Rand depreciated against the US Dollar during the period under review, on average, when compared to the previous period. The average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate for the period 02 July 2021 to 29 July 2021 was 14.5359 compared to 13.9219 during the previous period. This led to a higher contribution to the Basic Fuel Prices on petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin by 34.73 c/l, 32.27 c/l and 31.42 c/l respectively.

According to the South African Weather Service’s Seasonal Climate Watch Report (August -December 2021), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain in a neutral state for spring, with a likely change to a weak La Niña during early-summer. As we move towards the spring and summer season, ENSO starts playing an important role in our summer rainfall. As such, the increased likelihood of a weak La Niña during early summer is expected to be favourable for above-normal rainfall in that period.